Trading firm Wintermute stated in 2025 that the “four-year cycle is dead.” It said institutional capital flows, not halving narratives, now determine market performance.
The firm used 2025 over-the-counter trading data showing extreme concentration across assets. Spot Bitcoin and spot Ethereum ETFs brought steady demand but trapped liquidity in large-cap assets.
Wintermute characterized the ETF-driven market as “walled gardens,” limiting cross-asset flows. Altcoin rallies lasted about 20 days in 2025, versus roughly 60 days in 2024.
Retail investor attention shifted toward equity markets tied to artificial intelligence. A broad market recovery in 2026 therefore depends on specific catalysts, not a calendar (Ed. note: Market direction now depends on capital flows rather than a predictable cycle).
Wintermute listed three possible triggers to broaden liquidity across the crypto market in 2026. First, ETF and digital asset trust mandates would need to widen to include more tokens.
Second, a major price rally in either Bitcoin or Ethereum could renew capital rotation. Third, less likely, is a return of retail mindshare that would fuel fresh stablecoin minting.
Some early signs include filings for spot ETFs on assets such as Solana and XRP. Spot XRP ETFs recently resumed net inflows, according to SoSoValue data.
On January 11, 2026, Ethereum recorded 393,600 new addresses in one day, per Santiment data. Wintermute argued future market trends will follow concentrated capital flows rather than a predictable four-year clock.
