Polymarket bettors now price a 77% probability the U.S. government will shut down again before January 31, after odds jumped 67% in the past 24 hours, according to Polymarket. The move came amid Senate opposition to Department of Homeland Security funding and reports of a federal-agent shooting in Minneapolis, which have complicated funding talks (Ed. note: Odds rose sharply within one day).
Political commentator Collin Rugg highlighted the odds surge on social media, linking to the market movement via his post here. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats would not provide votes to proceed if DHS funding stayed in the bill, as he stated here, and added “I will vote no.”
Donald Trump did not rule out a future shutdown, telling Fox Business here that he expected another “Democrat shutdown” was possible, saying “I think we have a problem, because I think we’re probably going to end up in another Democrat shutdown.”
The uncertainty also clouds the CLARITY Act, a crypto bill aiming to clarify regulation, whose progress stalled after a record 43-day shutdown last October and November. Brian Armstrong and other executives withdrew support, with Armstrong saying “This version would be materially worse than the current status quo. We’d rather have no bill than a bad bill.”
Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn echoed industry concerns and noted unclear paths on stablecoin yields, as he outlined on social media here. Thorn said additional weeks before a second markup could give negotiators time, but no clear compromise has yet emerged.
