Bitcoin’s price action continues to defy supportive macroeconomic signals, with data indicating a lack of decisive U.S. institutional buying. Despite favorable CPI data that boosted equity markets, Bitcoin failed to see follow-through as spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned negative and key indicators like the Coinbase Premium Index remained in negative territory, suggesting sellers are absorbing rallies.
Despite positive inflation data, Bitcoin did not mirror the follow-through seen in equities because the marginal buyer did not reappear in the U.S. spot markets. The Coinbase Premium Index stayed negative for months, meaning Coinbase often traded below offshore venues.
This divergence suggests arbitrage selling into U.S. strength and a preference for derivatives over spot. Premiums failed to hold positive during advances toward $100,000 to $120,000, as “buyers chased breakouts late, then faded rallies as liquidity thinned.”
Institutional participation reflected the same hesitation already visible in U.S. spot demand. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned inconsistent, with net outflows reaching $410 million by February 13th, extending a two-day total nearing $686 million according to data.
The intended outcome had been steady institutional accumulation following CPI relief. Instead, allocations remained tactical as investors used rallies to re-balance risk.
Aggressive selling has continued to dominate order flow, reinforcing the same demand fragility. Net taker volume printed sustained negatives, frequently extending beyond –200 million and nearing –450 million at extremes, according to metrics.
This imbalance emerged as whales, funds, and leveraged traders drove rallies while liquidity remained thin. Brief positive bursts appeared during short squeezes and tactical dip buying, but these inflows faded quickly.
Persistent negative averages signaled distribution into strength as Bitcoin approached the $100,000 region. Together, reactive buying cushioned downside risk, yet dominant sell execution and fragile spot demand kept upside momentum constrained.
