Roundhill Investments has filed with the SEC to launch six ETFs tied to the 2028 U.S. presidential and congressional election outcomes. The proposed products would invest in event contracts, a derivative instrument allowing speculation on political results. ETF analyst Eric Balchunas described the potential approval as “potentially groundbreaking,” while the filing itself warns investors of significant risks, including the potential for total loss.
The US-based ETF issuer Roundhill Investments has filed to launch six exchange-traded funds tied to event contracts on the 2028 U.S. election. The filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission specifies funds for Democratic or Republican victories in the presidency, Senate, and House.
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said the products would be “potentially groundbreaking” if approved. “Opens up huge door to all kinds of stuff,” Balchunas added, noting that ETFs are easier for investors than typical prediction market applications.
According to the filing, a fund tied to the winning outcome seeks capital appreciation, while the other five could lose nearly all value. It stated that the convergence to a single outcome will cause a sudden and substantial change in the fund’s net asset value.
The regulatory landscape for such contracts remains uncertain, as highlighted in the filing. It warns that political outcome event contracts face heightened scrutiny and could be limited or prohibited by regulators.
This development follows a recent shift in regulatory posture. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently withdrew a proposal to ban political and sports prediction markets.
Separately, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin expressed concern about prediction markets’ direction. In an X post, Buterin suggested they are over-converging to short-term price betting instead of long-term building.
