Bitcoin is poised for its worst first-quarter performance since 2018, declining approximately 22% year-to-date. Analysts point to reduced on-chain activity and ETF outflows as indicators of a potential market transition, with historical data suggesting such weak starts can precede extended consolidation phases.
Bitcoin is headed for its worst first quarter in eight years, having fallen about 22% so far in 2026. The decline marks the digital asset’s weakest start to a year since 2018, when it lost nearly 50% value.
If February closes lower, it would be the first time Bitcoin has posted consecutive monthly declines in January and February. Historically, similar patterns have signaled the beginning of prolonged market consolidation. Matrixport analysts noted that 20%+ corrections become more frequent when market momentum fades, a shift observed since mid-2025 as long-term holders began taking profits.
The current downturn is accompanied by decreased on-chain activity and intermittent outflows from Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), indicating reduced institutional participation. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has also declined by approximately 1.9% to $43.9 billion, suggesting a pullback in leveraged trading and investor risk appetite. According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin was trading around $65,200 in mid-February.
Matrixport’s analysis, using a 30-day rate-of-change model, finds current conditions resemble historical bear phases. However, they stated that crypto downturns are rarely linear and that steep counter-trend rallies often occur. The weak demand and lack of a typical Q1 rebound suggest a potential shift toward a longer consolidation period for the cryptocurrency market.
