Bitcoin’s price plunged over 50% from its 2025 peak of $126,000 to $60,000 by early February. The asset then recovered to around $70,000, prompting analysis from AI models on whether the market has bottomed. ChatGPT and Gemini both suggested a bottom is likely but acknowledged potential for further decline due to macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.
Bitcoin experienced a 52% decline from an all-time high exceeding $126,000 in October 2025 to $60,000 by early February. The conflict involving Israel, the USA, and Iran last week initially drove prices lower before a recovery to a monthly peak of $74,000.
When asked if Bitcoin has bottomed, ChatGPT described such a correction as “very normal for Bitcoin bull-cycle corrections.” It noted the $60,000 low historically fits as “a typical mid-cycle shakeout” and assigned a 45% probability the bottom is in.
It stated the narrative includes completion of the large correction, improved sentiment, and strong buying at those levels. If accurate, a surge toward $90,000 and then a “parabolic phase” to between $180,000 and $220,000 could follow this year.
Gemini largely agreed the bottom might be in, citing previous leverage crashes. “During that February low, Bitcoin’s momentum indicators and its distance from its 200-day moving average reached oversold levels we haven’t seen since the 2022 bear market or the FTX collapse. The selling pressure simply exhausted itself,” it stated.
Both models left room for another correction if macro conditions worsen. Gemini pointed to investors rotating out of speculative tech stocks and lingering inflation and geopolitical tension, making institutional risk appetite “currently shaky.”
ChatGPT gave a 20% chance for a scenario with a “one last brutal flush” driving Bitcoin to between $48,000 and $52,000. It noted a very slight probability of an extreme drop to $42,000 but said “such a move would likely be very short-lived.”
