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Analyst: Alphabet Could Break $5T Market Cap by Year-End on Gemini, TPUs Driving Growth Up

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In January 2026, Alphabet (GOOGL) briefly topped a $4 trillion market cap and reached $337 per share. The stock later pulled back to $329 after that peak.

Its market value stood near $3.99 trillion at the time. (Ed. note: Market-cap figures can change with share-price moves.)

Only Nvidia (NVDA) had previously reached a $5 trillion valuation, though it has since retreated toward the $4 trillion range. Analysts link both firms’ moves to the AI-driven rally of 2025.

Analyst Daniel Foelber said a $5 trillion valuation could be realistic by year-end if earnings grow about 10%–15% annually. He argued the stock price could rise roughly in line with that earnings growth.

Foelber credited the success of Google Gemini and the launch of Gemini 3 for driving recent gains and revenue potential. He also highlighted Alphabet’s investments in AI as a core rallying factor.

Foelber noted Alphabet’s custom tensor processing units may lower data-center AI costs versus GPUs. Analyst price targets for 2026 range from $185 to $400 per share, and a $5 trillion market cap could push the stock toward $500 and ahead of Tesla (TSLA).

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