A key on-chain indicator suggests Bitcoin may be nearing a significant market phase. Data shows long-term holders are now selling at a loss, which analysts historically associate with widespread fear and potentially exhausting sell pressure. Concurrently, whale selling activity on exchanges has cooled, shifting to a wait-and-see approach. Several analysts, examining technical patterns and valuation models, have identified potential accumulation zones ranging from approximately $30,000 to $54,000.
On-chain data indicates Bitcoin long-term holders have begun selling at a loss. The Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio has fallen below 1.0, signaling these investors are realizing losses on their transactions.
Analyst Crypto Dan wrote that this scenario typically carries more weight than short-term holders selling. “Long-term holders are the least reactive to short-term price swings, so their decision to sell at a loss is seen as fear spreading widely,” the analysis noted.
This behavior has historically marked what the analyst called “the final stage of fear” before selling pressure diminishes. While not declaring an absolute bottom, Crypto Dan characterized the current environment as one where opportunity tends to follow such capitulation.
Simultaneously, whale selling activity on Binance has cooled significantly after a period of heavy distribution. Analyst Darkfost observed that large players have adopted a wait-and-see approach. Their daily Bitcoin inflows to the exchange have dropped from a recent high near 4,000 BTC to approximately 1,600 BTC.
Several analysts have identified potential price ranges for a market bottom based on this data. Chartist Ali Martinez noted a recurring technical signal tied to moving averages that appeared near cycle lows in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Based on historical precedent, he identified potential accumulation zones around $40,000, with a deeper scenario near $30,000.
Using legacy valuation models, analyst Willy Woo estimated the bottom could be between $46,000 and $54,000. Trader Doctor Profit placed the likely floor range between $35,000 and $45,000 but also noted a potential short-term upside move could precede a final dip.
