A long-term cycle model from market analyst Master Kenobi suggests Bitcoin may be approaching a market trough, with a potential peak around October 2025 following the 2024 halving. Separately, analyst Crypto Tice notes Bitcoin has entered a historical bottom window based on a recurring 23-month pattern from past all-time highs. Both perspectives highlight the asset’s pattern of expansion and correction following halving events.
Market analyst Master Kenobi shared an update on a long-term model tracking Bitcoin’s market cycles. The model previously predicted the last cycle’s peak and the 2022 trough, and now indicates a potential market trough in late September or early October.
The model’s current projection points to a possible cycle peak around October 2025. This follows the halving event that took place in April 2024.
Historical data shows Bitcoin cycles have consistently followed halving events with phases of slow buying, a large rally, and a sharp correction. Since 2012, a pattern has been observed between halvings, price tops, and bottoms.
In the 2012-2014 cycle, the price increased over 54,000% to a peak 367 days post-halving before an 86% decline. The subsequent 2016-2018 cycle saw a 12,300% gain peaking 525 days after the halving, followed by an 84% drop.
The 2020-2022 cycle saw a 2,070% rally peak 539 days after the May 2020 halving. The price then corrected by 77% over nearly a year.
Analyst Crypto Tice stated that Bitcoin has entered its historical bottom window. His data indicates market bottoms have occurred approximately 23 months after previous all-time highs.
He pointed to several concurrent factors including a lack of downward momentum, low selling pressure, and reduced volatility. “When these factors come into play, they have previously indicated a major turn in the market,” he noted based on historical patterns.
