Bitcoin’s downside risk is increasing as global liquidity tightens and institutional demand weakens, according to analyst Willy Woo. Several on-chain indicators are converging to suggest a potential market bottom zone around $45,000, which would represent a 25% decline from current prices near $67,800.
Bitcoin faces growing downside pressure from tightening global liquidity and weakening institutional demand. Analyst Willy Woo indicated a proper market bottom has not yet been established.
Woo stated that several of his on-chain valuation models are starting to converge around the $45,000 level as a large accumulation area. He noted the price action is currently diverging from long-term holder demand, a signal previously observed at cycle lows.
The $45,000 figure represents the floor of the Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed indicator. This metric measures the movement of old coins and has represented market bottoms in previous cycles.
A decline to $45,000 would be about a 25% drop from current levels. Bitcoin was recently trading near $67,800, facing pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and investor rotation into artificial intelligence stocks.
Woo added that “paper Bitcoin” – futures and spot exchange-traded funds – has seen greater activity than on-chain settlement. He wrote that “Until liquidity conditions improve, Bitcoin may need to move lower to find its true cost-basis support.”
Despite short-term caution, Woo identified a potential drop to $45,000 as a significant long-term opportunity. His “Max Pain” model anticipates speculators would be forced out at that price, potentially paving the way for a stronger advance later.
Market opinions on Bitcoin’s trajectory remain divided among technical analysts. For now, Bitcoin is at a decision point with liquidity trends and macro conditions set to determine its direction.
