Analysts warn Bitcoin may not have reached its cycle bottom despite trading near $69,516. Technical patterns suggest the peak likely occurred in Q4 2025, pointing to a potential bottom in Q4 2026. A key trend indicator has turned red on the weekly chart, echoing signals from previous bear markets.
Analysts tracking Bitcoin’s historical patterns indicate the market may still be in a downtrend. According to analyst ChartNerd, Bitcoin has historically operated under an approximate four-year cycle, with the top of the current cycle likely occurring in Q4 2025.
He stated that if the pattern holds, “the cycle bottom should occur in Q4 2026.” This suggests the current price structure, with Bitcoin around $69,516 according to CoinMarketCap, could be a temporary relief rally.
ChartNerd further indicated that $60,000 may be a zone for such a short-term rally within a larger overall downtrend. The analyst described the same pattern emerging before the cycle bottoms of 2018 and 2022, supporting the current structural analysis.
Meanwhile, analyst Crypto Rover referenced the Gaussian Channel, a well-established trend indicator. He noted that “every Bitcoin cycle bottom has formed subsequent to the Gaussian Channel turning red,” a pattern visible in the three most recent bear markets.
The Gaussian Channel has turned red again on the weekly time frame, a signal suggesting the last cycle bottom has not been reached. On-chain data also supports a cautious viewpoint regarding long-term holders.
According to CryptoQuant, the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains below 1, even after a recent increase. This confirms that average long-term holders continue to sell at a loss, a trend historically preceding ultimate market cycle bottoms.
Additionally, derivatives data from CoinGlass shows Bitcoin’s funding rate has stayed neutral to slightly negative. Open interest in the Bitcoin futures market has also decreased slightly, implying fewer leveraged traders are participating.
Low funding rates and declining open interest have previously been associated with additional downward pressure or continued price consolidation. Based on these combined signals, the current price movement may only be a short-term relief rally rather than a confirmed reversal.
