Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, said on Wednesday that Bitcoin will likely reach new all-time highs in 2026 if dollar liquidity expands. He made the claim in his post (Hayes’s post).
Hayes listed catalysts that could drive a large increase in dollar liquidity next year, including expansion of the US Federal Reserve balance sheet, lower mortgage rates, and increased commercial bank lending to government-backed strategic industries. He framed the Fed move as a form of “money printing” tied to fiscal and strategic priorities.
He also wrote that “The US will continue to flex its military muscle,” and said weapon production would likely be financed through the commercial banking system. He argued that monetary expansion typically pushes investors toward riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Market data shows tech led the S&P 500 in 2025 with a 24.6% total return, according to Investing.com. Bitcoin fell 14.4% in 2025 while gold rose 44.4%, per Curvo data. Bitcoin is up about 12.2% over the past 30 days, per CoinMarketCap.
Hayes described Bitcoin as “monetary technology” and said, “This alone guarantees that Bitcoin’s value is greater than zero.” He added that reaching near $100,000 would require ongoing fiat monetary debasement.
