Binance’s Bitcoin derivatives index has fallen to 0.35, a level that previously marked major market lows. On-chain analysts note that short-term holder capital has declined significantly to around $390 billion and point to a 77% surge in the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio, suggesting price movement lacks underlying network activity. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of approximately $568 million last week, though daily data reveals continued investor caution.
Analyst Amr Taha wrote that the Binance Bitcoin derivatives market index has dropped to about 0.35. In the past, readings near these levels appeared during major market lows, which were followed by significant price increases.
The analyst also shared that the market cap of BTC held by short-term holders has fallen to approximately $390 billion. Large declines in this metric have often been precursors to major capitulation events among these investors.
Analyst GugaOnChain described the current situation as a “No Traction Engine” diagnosis, pointing to the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio. The NVT ratio jumped 77% to 41.34, suggesting the price is moving without corresponding network activity.
According to the expert, the STH-MVRV sitting at 0.76 confirms retail investors are realizing losses. The Coinbase Premium turning negative also shows institutional selling pressure.
These signals appear as Bitcoin struggles to hold recent gains, trading near $69,000 after recent volatility. The asset fell below $66,000 on March 8 before bouncing back above $68,000.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $568 million in new money last week, marking a second consecutive week of positive flows. Daily data, however, showed choppiness with nearly $350 million in outflows last Friday.
