Bitcoin faces a pivotal $10.5 billion monthly options expiry on Friday, with sellers currently holding a significant advantage. Data shows bulls require a 9% price rally from current levels near $68,800 to shift the balance in their favor. The market is heavily influenced by a 90% correlation with the Nasdaq 100 Index, indicating tech investor sentiment is a key driver of confidence.
Bitcoin price surged to an eight-day high, forming a double bottom near $62,500, but remains 21% lower than last month. This puts bulls at a disadvantage heading into Friday’s $10.5 billion monthly Bitcoin options expiry.
Deribit dominates the event with a 76% market share, followed by OKX and CME. Although aggregate call options open interest is 25% higher than puts, most bullish bets are positioned above current prices. A detailed analysis indicates 88% of call options on Deribit will expire worthless if Bitcoin stays below $70,000.
Put options targeting prices below $60,000 represent $1.44 billion in open interest on Deribit. Meanwhile, puts at $72,000 and above total $1.15 billion, enough to offset existing call options. The fate of the expiry could be decided by stock market performance, as historical correlation with equities is currently high.
The success of the artificial intelligence sector, particularly the sustainable operational margins of the world’s largest companies, remains decisive for every risk market. The current 90% correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index is clear evidence the tech play drives trader confidence.
Based on current trends, put instruments maintain an advantage across several price ranges at expiry. For instance, a price between $65,000 and $69,000 favors puts by $1.15 billion. Ultimately, Bitcoin bulls need a rally to near $75,000 to flip the tables on the February options expiry.
