Bitcoin fell to a two-week low of $62,696 amid a prolonged bearish trend, analysts citing concerning Reserve Risk Indicators that signal a potential for further decline. However, accumulation by small-scale investors and a lack of selling incentive for short-term holders may provide underlying demand support, creating a mixed outlook for the cryptocurrency’s near-term price movement.
Bitcoin declined to a two-week low before a slight rebound, trading at $63,376 with daily losses exceeding 3%. Analysts project further losses, citing declining Reserve Risk Indicators.
Alphractal noted that reserve risk indicators have turned downward alongside dropping prices. “Reserve Risk and VOCDD/MVOCDD have both turned downward, signaling a weakening alignment between price trends and long‑term holder convictions.”
Elevated reserve risk typically signals increased economic activity from older coins, pointing to long-term holder distribution. Historically, similar indicators have triggered sell signals followed by significant price declines.
While long-term holders have been exiting, continued price decline has left short-term holders demotivated to sell. The Short-term Sell Side Risk Ratio has declined, meaning this group is unlikely to sell at current market conditions.
Small-scale investors, however, have used the dip to accumulate Bitcoin. Shrimp, Fish, and Crab cohorts all added more BTC than they sold, with their balance changes rising significantly.
This steady accumulation by small traders, combined with short-term holders’ reluctance to sell, suggests demand may prevent a sharp crash. Therefore, BTC could avoid a significant drop and potentially reclaim higher price levels.
Conversely, if the historical pattern holds, Bitcoin could breach the $60,000 support level. This risk is underscored by the RSIM Divergence Zone flashing a bearish signal.
