Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded strong inflows of $1.16 billion over the past seven days, extending a four-week streak to $2.52 billion. This rally occurs as Bitcoin’s price diverges from traditional assets like gold, gaining 14% since Middle East tensions escalated. The trend now faces a critical test from the Federal Reserve’s policy decision today, which could impact the fragile bullish momentum.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have secured a seven-day inflow streak totaling $1.16 billion. According to data from SoSoValue, this contributed to a four-week streak of $2.52 billion.
This rally has happened despite escalating geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin is up roughly 14% from its lows amid the U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran, while gold and the S&P 500 have declined.
Rachel Lin, CEO of decentralized exchange SynFutures, described the phase as one of “classic seller exhaustion” followed by institutional re-engagement. “Once forced selling subsides, even modest inflows can have an outsized impact on price and flows,” she stated.
However, Lin noted these ETF flows present a double-edged sword for the market. While they make a recovery to $75,000 more durable, they also increase sensitivity to macroeconomic catalysts.
The key test arrives with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Traders assign a 98.9% chance rates will hold steady, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Gracy Chen, CEO of crypto exchange Bitget, expects cautious trading with tight ranges. “Any dovish tone from the Federal Reserve could support risk assets, including Bitcoin, while a hawkish stance may trigger short-term volatility,” she said.
On prediction market Myriad, users assign just an 11% chance of a rate cut over 25 basis points before July. They give a 56% probability that Bitcoin will next rally to $84,000 rather than fall to $55,000.
Bitcoin recently retreated to around $72,400 after testing $75,600. The market’s direction now hinges on the Fed’s upcoming policy announcement.
