Bitcoin’s market is experiencing tight consolidation with significant underlying pressure as short-term holders sell at a loss. Analysis shows a major capitulation spike in early February aligned with Bitcoin’s drop from approximately $90,000 to around $65,000. While only 4.9% of short-term holder supply remains in profit, long-term holders show strong unrealized profits. Concurrently, large holders are not selling, suggesting absorption of weak-hand supply, which is limiting further downside and increasing the probability of price stabilization.
Bitcoin continues to trade in a sideways to bearish pattern as recent buyers realize losses, creating heavy price resistance. Short-term holder outflows remained deeply negative, signaling persistent market stress.
A major capitulation spike near 80,000 BTC in early February aligned with a sharp price drop from around $90,000 toward $65,000. Although these flows later eased, they still hovered near 28,200 BTC.
Only 4.9% of the short-term holder supply remains in profit, while the STH-MVRV ratio at 0.7 indicates recent buyers are underwater. Meanwhile, aggregate NUPL stayed positive, showing long-term holders retain strong unrealized profits.
As short-term holders exit, attention shifts to who is absorbing this supply. Notably, large holders in the 10,000 to 100,000 BTC and 100,000 to 1 million BTC cohorts show little deviation in their balances, reflecting deliberate holding.
This lack of outflows suggests whales see current levels as unattractive for selling. They instead maintain exposure, absorbing supply from stressed sellers without triggering broader liquidation cascades.
Long-Term Holder Supply remained firm around 14.8 million BTC, showing no signs of distribution. The monthly net position change climbed to 353,000 BTC, marking the strongest accumulation since April 2025.
Illiquid supply rose by 86,000 to 90,000 BTC, indicating coins are moving into wallets with low spending intent. The Spot Taker CVD remains neutral to positive, indicating buyers are meeting sell pressure. This sustained absorption keeps the price stable, increasing the likelihood of base formation.
