Bitcoin remains well above a key historical price floor held by its most steadfast investors. Despite recent selling pressure, data suggests long-term holders are moving coins cautiously, while short-term traders are driving most profit-taking, leaving the market’s direction uncertain.
The Bitcoin market has yet to show a decisive sign of recovery. New indicators are emerging that reinforce the possibility of further downside pressure.
One key indicator comes from long-term holders (LTHs), defined as wallets holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days. This cohort reflects conviction capital, and shifts in their behavior carry analytical weight.
Historically, Bitcoin has formed market bottoms when its price falls below the cost basis of long-term holders. According to data from CryptoQuant, the current LTH cost basis stands at $38,900, while Bitcoin traded near $64,890.
If historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin could eventually retest this zone. Past cycles have seen price decline roughly 20% below the LTH cost basis before a rebound.
However, Bitcoin currently remains approximately 66.8% above that average cost basis. That wide margin suggests that significant bearish catalysts would be required to force a move toward that threshold.
The Binary Coin Days Destroyed indicator, which tracks whether long-term investors are moving dormant coins, currently signals increased activity. This behavior is often associated with distribution or profit-taking.
Market data shows this is the first time since February 18th that the Binary CDD has printed a reading of 1. The recurrence suggests a period of measured profit-taking may be underway among long-term participants.
Despite the recent sell-off, data indicates long-term holder profit-taking remains controlled. Short-term holders have accounted for a larger share of recent selling.
This dynamic is visible in the LTH/STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures the profitability of coins spent by each cohort. When the LTH-to-STH SOPR ratio is below 1, it suggests short-term holders dominate selling pressure.
The latest data shows short-term holders have taken control of selling activity. This points to relative restraint among long-term investors.
For now, there is no certainty Bitcoin will revisit the long-term holders’ cost basis. Such a move would likely require macroeconomic headwinds, negative sentiment, and sustained selling pressure.
