Bitcoin faces heightened volatility as five major macroeconomic data releases coincide with a speech by U.S. President Donald Trump on January 27. With institutional demand appearing weak and speculative leverage rising, analysts question if Bitcoin will post its first negative January return since the 2022 bear market, given the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
A cluster of five key macroeconomic releases scheduled for January 27 is setting the stage for a volatile end to the month. The stakes are elevated as these data points coincide with a speech by U.S. President Donald Trump, where investors will listen for signals regarding a potential government shutdown or rate cuts.
Market observers are questioning whether the crypto market, where 60% of capital inflows are Bitcoin-led, can handle the pressure. From an institutional perspective, the timing is challenging, with Bitcoin ETF outflows and a negative Coinbase Premium Index suggesting U.S. investors are rotating toward safer assets.
Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index has fallen 12 points in a week, nearing “extreme fear” territory. This backdrop raises the question, as stated, of whether these macro events could push Bitcoin’s January ROI into negative territory for the first time since 2022.
Trader and investor positioning shows a clear divergence, with spot flows indicating restraint. However, the BTC/USDT trade on Binance shows a 70% long skew, and the Estimated Leverage Ratio is spiking alongside Open Interest nearing $60 billion.
On the chart, Bitcoin has been consolidating in a tight range between $85,000 and $90,000. This setup, combined with weak spot flows and a macro-heavy calendar including the FOMC meeting on January 28, leaves the asset primed for sudden swings.
