Bitcoin is flashing rare buy signals similar to previous market bottoms, yet macro pressures are overwhelming these historical indicators. The cryptocurrency has fallen approximately 50% from its October 2025 peak to around $63,080. Key metrics show capitulation, with Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio hitting -40 and the USDT stablecoin market cap contracting by over $3 billion. Analysts are divided, with some seeing a potential late-cycle flush while others caution that price confirmation is still needed for a genuine recovery.
Bitcoin is displaying rare buy signals not seen since prior cycle bottoms, but a sustained recovery remains elusive as macro headwinds overpower historically reliable indicators. The leading crypto has dropped about 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,080 to roughly $63,080.
Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has plummeted to -40, a capitulation level witnessed only four times since 2015 according to CryptoQuant data. Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures, stated, “While this doesn’t pinpoint the exact bottom, it has historically marked zones where forward risk-reward meaningfully improved.”
Furthermore, the 60-day market cap change for stablecoin USDT has fallen below negative $3 billion as data shows. Ignacio Aguirre Franco, CMO at Bitget, explained “A contraction in stablecoin supply often reflects liquidity withdrawal, limiting dry powder available to support buying pressure.”
Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, offered a skeptical view on the signals’ reliability. He argued that with only a few historical data points, “Three or four data points don’t make a pattern; they make a coincidence.”
Randin highlighted factors like $3.8 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows and a divided Federal Reserve. He noted that while other metrics hint at accumulation by strong hands, “Price confirmation is what turns a potential opportunity into a real one.”
