Analyst Axel Adler Jr. notes a stark divergence in Bitcoin’s on-chain data. While realized losses recently hit nearly $2 billion, mirroring 2022-2023 bear market levels, the overall supply of coins moving has contracted. This signals potential selling exhaustion among weaker holders, but the broader market remains in a neutral state without confirmation of a bullish reversal.
Recent on-chain analysis reveals Bitcoin is experiencing a notable structural divergence. Realized losses have surged to cycle extremes even as overall supply activity continues to contract.
According to the latest analysis shared by Axel Adler Jr., the Net Realized Profit/Loss metric has fallen sharply into negative territory. Losses reached nearly $2 billion during January-February 2026, a level last seen in the 2022-2023 bear market.
This pattern follows a long period from October 2023 through 2024 when the metric was positive during a rally to $125,000. The current dominance of realized losses with prices between $65,000 and $75,000 points to capitulation pressure among weaker holders.
However, Adler Jr. explained that this alone does not confirm a trend reversal. Simultaneously, the Supply Active 30D Change metric has declined below zero, indicating reduced coin movement and increasingly dormant coins.
“Some weaker participants are exiting the Bitcoin market while the more inert mass of holders remains passive,” Adler Jr. observed. This divergence implies exhaustion in loss-driven selling rather than a confirmed recovery in demand.
Structurally, this aligns with potential accumulation phases, though confirmation requires a steady recovery in the 7-day moving average of Net Realized PnL. The primary risk is supply activity accelerating before PnL recovers, indicating renewed distribution.
Until such confirmation emerges, the current market regime remains neutral. Conditions suggest compression in selling pressure rather than the onset of a definitive bullish reversal.
