Bitcoin’s decline from six-figure highs to the $80,000-$70,000 range was driven by profit-taking and weakening capital inflows, according to on-chain data. The correction approached but did not breach a key support level, remaining about 18% above the $55,000 realized price, and several indicators suggest a full market capitulation has not yet occurred.
Bitcoin’s price cooled from six-figure highs towards the $80,000 to $70,000 range, driven by profit realization and weakening inflows. As selling expanded, Bitcoin approached a key on-chain support level but remained about 18% above the $55,000 realized price.
Historically, Bitcoin trades 24–30% below this level during bear market washouts. That threshold has not yet been reached, which explains why full capitulation has not formed.
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) fell towards the 0.20–0.30 zone as unrealized profits compressed. However, it remained above the negative levels seen at prior bottoms, “A sign that panic loss distribution has not occurred.”
Capital expansion supported Bitcoin’s structural rally through 2023 and early 2024, as Realized Cap Impulse held firmly above +2.0. During this period, the price rose from below $30,000 towards $70,000 and then to the $100,000-range.
ETF inflows and institutional allocations injected billions, while long-term holders absorbed the circulating supply. This balance hinted at strong confidence and steady demand capable of sustaining higher valuations.
As the cycle matured into late 2025, the momentum began to slow. Impulse peaks declined from above +4.5 towards +2.0, even as the price remained near $100,000.
This divergence revealed that new capital was entering at a slower pace. Profit realization gradually replaced fresh accumulation, weakening demand absorption.
At the time of writing, about 50% of the supply remained in profit, showing that unrealized gains had thinned. The stable LTH realized cap suggested that long-term conviction was intact.
Realized losses surged as short-term holders sent over 100,000 BTC to exchanges, marking forced distribution. However, rising Accumulation Trend Scores alluded to the emergence of dip-buying absorption.
