On-chain data suggests Bitcoin’s current correction may not have reached a definitive bottom, with long-term holders hovering near breakeven—a level historically preceding bear-market lows. Analysts are divided, as some point to extreme fear readings and heavy whale accumulation near $60,000 as signs of a potential floor, while others warn of further downside if upcoming inflation data reinforces a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.
Bitcoin is displaying several on-chain signals indicative of a significant market turning point, though not yet those that typically accompany a durable price bottom. According to a recent report from CryptoQuant, key metrics like Long-Term Holder profit margins and the MVRV Z-score remain in uncertain territory between a mid-cycle correction and a total market reset.
Long-term holder profits have plummeted from 142% last October to approximate breakeven levels. “Historically, bear market bottoms have coincided with periods when LTHs experience 30% to 40% loss margins,” the analysis noted, suggesting true capitulation has not yet occurred. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, broadly agrees the market may not have confirmed a macro bottom, warning that a final washout is possible if equities weaken.
Traders are now bracing for delayed January inflation data following a hotter-than-expected jobs report. A surprise rise could reinforce a higher-for-longer interest rate outlook, exerting additional pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Traditional finance firms including Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered anticipate Bitcoin could slide to between $50,000 and $58,000.
However, some analysts argue panic selling may be exhausting itself. “The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged to a reading of 11/100 on February 11, signaling acute panic and potential seller exhaustion,” said Sean McNulty, APAC derivatives trading lead at FalconX. He noted the downturn is driven by macroeconomic shifts rather than a systemic industry failure like the FTX collapse.
McNulty pointed to Bitcoin’s recent test of the $60,000 support level, which triggered a rapid 19% rebound. This was accompanied by a record single-day inflow of nearly 67,000 BTC into accumulation addresses, suggesting institutional whales are aggressively defending that price zone. “With the MVRV Z-score dropping to 1.2, the data indicates that Bitcoin is already trading at deep value,” he added.
