Bitcoin has recovered 7.45% after briefly falling below a key on-chain support level near $64,200. The rally now faces a critical test at approximately $74,500, which represents the average cost basis for a large cohort of holders, according to on-chain data. A sustained move above this level could signal a shift in market structure by returning that group to profitability.
Bitcoin has rebounded over 7% after dropping to around $62,400 earlier this week. The recovery enabled it to reclaim a crucial on-chain support level near $64,200, which analysts noted was successfully defended by the daily close.
This support level tracks the average acquisition cost for coins held between 18 and 24 months. Crypto analyst Anıl highlighted that this zone remains intact for now, providing a key psychological pivot for the market.
A more significant hurdle now lies near $74,500, the average cost basis for holders who bought between six months and two years ago. The concentration of supply at this level makes it a critical inflection point for Bitcoin’s current trend.
Data from CryptoQuant shows this cohort’s MVRV ratio sits at 0.88, indicating they are holding at an average loss. A decisive reclaim of the $74,500 level would place much of this group back in aggregate profit, potentially reducing sell-side pressure.
Parallel on-chain data indicates long-term Bitcoin supply has climbed to a three-month high near 14 million BTC. This recovery in aged supply points to continued coin dormancy despite recent market volatility.
However, broader capital flow metrics remain subdued. The Bitcoin realized cap net position change has compressed toward neutral, signaling negligible new capital inflows at recent price levels.
Historically, early market recoveries begin with a stabilization in this metric before an acceleration. A renewed expansion could provide clearer confirmation that fresh capital is re-entering the market.
