Bitcoin surged back above $67,000, defying a risk-off selloff triggered by heightened U.S.-Iran tensions. The recovery from a drop near $60,000 has surprised traders, prompting analysts to question its sustainability. Market expert Benjamin Cowen warns the pattern resembles a 2022 bear market trap, while on-chain data shows BTC trading below a key cost-basis level, signaling potential structural weakness.
Bitcoin reclaimed the $67,000 level despite geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran rattling global risk assets. The rebound from a low near $60,000 on February 28th was swift, recovering a significant portion of the decline within hours.
This resilience appears counterintuitive given historical risk-off reactions to geopolitical events. It raises a critical question of whether the strength reflects genuine accumulation or a temporary rally.
Market analyst Benjamin Cowen has urged caution, noting the current structure resembles Bitcoin’s behavior during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. In that cycle, a sharp rebound formed a lower high before the asset fell approximately 67%.
Cowen argues the present setup may trace a similar fractal, potentially leading to a relief rally into the $70,000–$84,000 range. “Bear markets tend to take a while to play out,” he noted, adding that even upward momentum in March may not confirm a sustained bull cycle.
On-chain data adds another layer of concern as Bitcoin trades below its adjusted realized price, estimated near $72,700. Historically, breaking below this cost-basis level has signaled periods of sustained weakness, as seen from May 2022 to March 2023.
Derivatives data further complicates the outlook with significant leveraged exposure on both sides. A breakout above $68,596 could trigger cascading short liquidations, while a breakdown below $65,656 could force long liquidations and accelerate selling pressure.
For now, the rally above $67,000 reflects market resilience. Whether it marks genuine strength or a bull trap will depend on Bitcoin reclaiming its realized price and avoiding another lower high.
