Bitcoin traders are nervous as the asset trades below $75,000 for 18 days, with a recent dip to $64,200 fueled by global market retreats and new US tariffs. However, historical data indicates Bitcoin often rallies after such macro fear, as seen in 2025 when a tariff announcement preceded a 38% gain. Current signals, including resilient mining profitability and professional traders shifting to net long positions on CME futures, suggest institutional accumulation may be occurring.
Bitcoin traders face heightened anxiety after 18 days below $75,000, with a recent retreat to $64,200 mirroring global stock declines. This unease follows US President Donald Trump increasing baseline import tariffs, which has driven investors toward more risk-averse positions.
Historical data shows Bitcoin has frequently outperformed during bearish macroeconomic shifts like trade wars. For instance, after sweeping tariffs were imposed in April 2025, Bitcoin rallied 38% within a month from a five-month low.
Traders typically seek shelter in cash and government bonds during uncertainty, as Bitcoin is not yet a consensus safe haven. Once markets anticipate governments may inject liquidity to stimulate economies, Bitcoin has historically begun to outperform.
The US Federal Reserve lends cash against Treasury collateral to smooth funding markets, a measure reflecting temporary balance sheet conditions. Peak levels in this indicator have historically aligned with reversals in Bitcoin’s price trend, as seen at the start of its 2020 rally.
Earnings from Nvidia are set to influence investor mood amid concerns over rising tech sector debt. Shares of Coreweave and Oracle have already plunged over 50% from their previous highs.
While conditions for AI-supporting companies weaken, the risk of an exodus from Bitcoin miners has diminished as network hashrate has recovered. Current-generation ASIC miners remain profitable even with electricity costs at $0.07 per kilowatt-hour.
Professional fund managers appear to be growing bullish, as large speculators on CME Bitcoin futures have shifted from net short to net long. Analyst Tom McClellan noted that two similar historical shifts preceded significant Bitcoin price bottoms.
No single indicator confirms if the $60,200 level marked the cycle low. However, the combination of liquidity concerns, AI sector valuation fears, and mining sector resilience could push Bitcoin’s price back toward $75,000.
