Bitcoin fell below $70,000 this week as selling pressure from both long-term and short-term holders intensified. Weak sentiment metrics and substantial profit-taking by recent buyers suggest the current correction could deepen, potentially targeting the $39,800 average cost basis for long-term holders.
Bitcoin’s price retreated below the $70,000 support level, erasing gains from a recent rally to $74,050. This decline was fueled by selling activity from market participants, with sentiment indicators like the Bull Score Index signaling weakness.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr noted that selling pressure from long-term holders—those holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days—might be rising again. Despite a 46% price drawdown since October, this cohort remains profitable on average, with their cost basis at $39,800.
Short-term holders also contributed to the pressure, sending a significant 27,500 BTC to exchanges at a profit, one of the highest volumes in recent weeks. This profit-taking likely directly impacted the price drop.
Market volatility is expected to remain high in the coming months. The 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio showed short-term holders were nearly 8% in profit, making sell-offs reasonable.
However, historical patterns suggest Bitcoin could surge towards $83,000 or even $89,000 in the weeks ahead to target short liquidations. Traders are advised to monitor the 90-day MVRV metric for similarities to patterns observed in January, which preceded a sharp correction.
The short-term holder realized price currently sits at $68,000, which could serve as a potential support level for a bullish reaction in the near term. The broader outlook remains uncertain, with further declines possible later in 2026.
