Large speculators in Bitcoin (BTC) futures have rapidly shifted from net short to net long positions according to recent regulatory data. This positioning change mirrors similar shifts in April 2025 and 2023, which preceded significant BTC price rallies. The cryptocurrency is currently testing a key long-term technical support level near $68,350. Analysts note this combination could signal a potential price recovery toward $85,000, though a breakdown could see prices fall toward $40,000.
Non-commercial Bitcoin futures traders cut their net position to roughly -1,600 contracts from about +1,000 a month earlier, according to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report. This shift means large speculators are now net bullish on the CME exchange.
Analyst Tom McClellan stated the rapid unwind implies smart money added longs “with some urgency.” He pointed to two similar past swings that preceded Bitcoin price bottoms.
For instance, BTC’s price gained around 70% after a sharp dip in futures net shorts in April 2025. In 2023, the price rose over 190% under similar conditions.
Bitcoin is currently defending its 200-week exponential moving average, which was near $68,350. This level has historically acted as a bear-market floor during major drawdowns.
The weekly relative strength index also remains in oversold territory. This suggests selling pressure could be nearing exhaustion.
A decisive rebound from the 200-week EMA could trigger a move toward the 100-week EMA near $85,000 by April. However, McClellan cautioned the smart money shift is a condition, not a signal.
Bitcoin could still slide, potentially repeating a 2022 scenario where it broke below the same average. That previous event led to a price drop of over 40%.
A similar 40% plunge from current levels could see prices fall toward $40,000. Some analysts also see a potential bottom in the $40,000 to $50,000 range based on cycle analysis.
