Bitcoin has stabilized near $66,600 after initial weekend volatility triggered by escalating Middle East tensions, showing relative resilience compared to U.S. equity futures. A sharply negative funding rate for Bitcoin derivatives indicates a surge in bearish bets, while oil and gold prices have rallied on fears of supply disruption and safe-haven demand.
Bitcoin steadied after a weekend selloff triggered by heightened Middle East geopolitical risks. The cryptocurrency reclaimed ground after falling to near $63,000 and was last seen trading around $66,600.
U.S.-led strikes on Iranian targets prompted retaliatory attacks, raising fears of a wider conflict. This development followed reports that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s rule as Iran’s supreme leader had ended.
The asset’s decline was smaller than losses implied by equity-index futures, which were down more than 1%. Investors are broadly marking down risk ahead of the U.S. market open.
Ryan McMillin, chief investment officer at Merkle Tree Capital, noted the market’s reaction. “Bitcoin’s initial sell-off was almost textbook; markets hate uncertainty more than bad news, and the moment the Iran conflict looked contained, the reflexive bid came back fast,” he stated.
He pointed to a Fear and Greed index reading of 11 and Bitcoin futures funding rates swinging to -6%. This signaled crowded short positioning not seen since Bitcoin traded at $16,000 in 2022.
Pratik Kala, head of research at Apollo Crypto, suggested much of the initial shock was already reflected. “Bitcoin would’ve sold off by now if it had to—the tape through the event over the weekend was very positive,” Kala said.
Broader markets focused on potential oil supply disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude prices jumped roughly 8–10% toward $80 a barrel on the conflict.
Kala noted elevated oil poses an inflation risk but said it may not be the base case. He cited large available OPEC supplies and potential action from U.S. leadership to keep prices low.
Safe-haven gold leaped more than 2% to $5,388 per ounce. Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit Learn, said the conflict would fuel gold’s tailwinds.
“Still, seasoned market watchers would be well aware that geopolitical risk premiums are often faded out swiftly, once market and economic risks are digested and appear to be contained,” Tan added.
