Bitcoin held steady near $66,000 as geopolitical developments influenced market sentiment. Reports indicated President Donald Trump is willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. According to officials cited by The Wall Street Journal, the strategy involves winding down hostilities while applying diplomatic pressure. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hold remained high at 97.4%, with oil prices up 48% since the conflict began.
Bitcoin is trading around $66,600, maintaining a position at the lower end of a near-two-month consolidation range. This stability follows reports that U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled a pivot towards prioritizing an exit from the Iran war. According to administration officials, Trump is willing to end the campaign even with the Strait of Hormuz largely closed.
Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that ensuring safe passage for oil tankers is not a core objective. In a Truth Social post, Trump reiterated threats to target Iran’s energy infrastructure if the strait is not reopened after discussions.
The broader financial markets saw initial gains before sliding lower. On prediction market Myriad, users assign a 61% chance that Bitcoin’s next move will be towards $55,000 rather than $84,000. Despite potential de-escalation, oil prices have risen 48% since the war began.
Markets have assigned a 97.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting on April 29, according to data from the CME FedWatch tool. Research analyst Lacie Zhang told Decrypt that a rapid de-escalation could unlock a strong risk-on rally, potentially pushing Bitcoin above $90,000.
Zhang added that even with conflict resolution, Bitcoin is unlikely to embark on a bull run without sustained institutional flows and regulatory clarity. Interestingly, Myriad users remain cautious, assigning just a 3% chance of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran before April.
