Short-term Bitcoin holders are selling at increasing losses, on-chain data shows. The seven-day moving average of Net Realized Profit/Loss has worsened to -$410 million. Meanwhile, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio has remained below 1.0 for nine consecutive days, indicating sustained loss-selling among recent buyers. Analysts note that a recovery signal would require both metrics to turn positive simultaneously.
On-chain data indicates traders holding Bitcoin for a short time are selling at a loss at an increasing rate. The seven-day moving average of Net Realized Profit/Loss has dropped to -$410 million, a $154 million worsening from last week’s -$256 million. According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., that trend is still moving deeper into negative territory.
At the same time, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio has stayed in loss territory for nine days in a row. Adler flagged that prolonged readings under 1.0 have historically appeared right before both local bottoms and further price drops. According to the analyst, while the STH SOPR on its own is not a mechanical sell signal, in the past, prolonged readings under 1.0 as is the case right now, have appeared right before both local bottoms and further price drops.
Pseudonymous analyst Mr. Wall Street said he has shifted to a fully bearish stance across both short- and mid-term timeframes. He argued that Bitcoin’s earlier rally from $60,000 to $76,000 was likely used to build liquidity for a larger move lower.
For market participants wishing to know the signs that show pressure is easing, Adler advised them to check when STH SOPR goes back above 1, and Net Realized P/L gets into positive territory at the same time, and for a sustained period. Bitcoin itself has been trading near $66,000, down roughly 30% from its January peak, after a fresh leg lower.
