Bitcoin’s price volatility has cooled as it stabilizes near $70,000, but options market data reveals traders remain defensive. According to analysis, the volume of bets on Bitcoin declining compared to bets on it rising has hit its highest level since 2021. This suggests sustained demand for downside protection. However, the same data indicates such defensive market positioning has historically signaled periods closer to market bottoms than tops.
Bitcoin’s realized volatility has fallen from 80 to 50 over the past month as its price stabilized. Despite this, traders continue paying significant premiums for downside protection.
Total premiums paid to purchase put options declined 24% month-over-month to $685 million over 30 days. This figure remains above 77% of monthly observations since the start of 2025.
The put/call ratio, comparing bets on price declines to bets on rises, jumped as high as 0.84 and averaged 0.77. These marks are the highest since 2021 and indicate “unusually strong demand for downside hedging relative to bullish positioning.”
“When options markets have been this fearful in the past, Bitcoin has tended to recover,” the report stated. The current level of defensiveness has historically marked periods closer to market bottoms than tops.
Activity among long-term holders also appears to be slowing. Bitcoin transfers among holders of at least one year fell month-over-month.
The top cryptocurrency traded at $69,891, down nearly 1% in 24 hours but up over 5% in a month. It remains nearly 45% below its all-time high of $126,080 from October.
