Bitcoin has traded below a key forecasting support level since January 2026, entering a prolonged bearish structure. Analysts point to realized price data, noting BTC has remained under a $72,500 resistance for two months while short-term holders face significant losses, increasing capitulation risk. The market shows dominant selling pressure, though a $60,490 support level on Binance could prevent further decline if held.
Bitcoin has traded below Grand Trend’s Forecasting support level since January 2026, experiencing strong bearish pressure. The cryptocurrency has fallen below both long-term and short-term realized prices during this period.
According to analyst Darkfost, BTC has held below the realized price that excludes inactive supply for two months. The analyst noted that the realized price, after the adjustment, is approximately $72,500.
Looking at the previous bear cycle, Bitcoin held below this cost basis between six and 10 months. If the historical pattern repeats, BTC could see more difficult months before reclaiming that level.
The Short-Term Holder Realized Price currently stands at $82,300, according to Checkonchain data. This implies recent buyers are sitting on significant losses, which increases the cohort’s capitulation risk.
Realized losses for short-term holders have stabilized above $300 million per day. On March 29, the STH cohort reported a $372 million loss, confirming bearish market conditions.
Bitcoin has traded within a bearish structure for nearly five months. As a result, the ADV/DECL metric has declined below 50, suggesting most funds have entered a declining asset phase.
These market conditions leave BTC exposed to potentially more losses on its price charts. Therefore, if the market price continues to hold the realized price while STH are selling, BTC could drop towards $62,000.
However, the realized price on Binance currently sits at around $60,490, providing the market with strong support. As long as BTC holds above this level, it will avoid further slip and give room for a reversal.
