On-chain data reveals a stark divergence in Bitcoin behavior as volatility increases. Retail short-term holders are panic selling at a loss, while large “whale” wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC have accumulated over 104,000 BTC in recent weeks. This whale accumulation has pushed their total supply to a four-month high of 7.17 million BTC, signaling a potential “smart-money” absorption of retail-capitulated supply.
Recent Bitcoin on-chain data highlighted a sharp behavioral split in the market. As volatility rose, retail panic selling accelerated amid fears of deeper price drawdowns.
Consequently, short-term holders sold below cost, locking in losses and reflecting bearish sentiment. During this phase, Short-Term Holder supply in loss expanded, confirming a capitulation event.
By contrast, whales accumulated steadily for several weeks. Wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC increased collective holdings by 104,340 BTC, a 1.5% rise.
That pushed total whale-held supply to 7.17 million BTC, marking a four-month high. Meanwhile, over $1 million in daily transfers hit a two-month high, signaling active accumulation.
Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit and Loss analysis showed that a realized loss of approximately $4.5 billion did not occur in a single print but accumulated through repeated downside spikes. This indicated prolonged stress rather than a single capitulation event.
An analysis showed the 30-day realized net profit/loss in BTC terms slipped below zero near late 2025, marking the first sustained negative print since September 2023. These losses largely come from short-term holders, as recent buyers sell below cost after failed breakouts above $90,000.
Short-term holder loss realization continued to shape Bitcoin’s structure, keeping the price confined within a wide consolidation range. Selling below cost added supply during rebounds, which limits breakouts above the $95,000-$100,000 resistance zone.
At the same time, selling pressure has eased near $85,000–$88,000, where buyers have shown willingness to absorb supply. This balance favored sideways price action rather than a sustained trend.
