Bitcoin’s sharp decline to around $60,000 may signal the midpoint of a historically typical post-halving bear market, according to analysis. Research firm Kaiko suggests the 32% correction aligns with a cycle pattern where markets enter a roughly 12-month downturn before a new accumulation phase. While some indicators point to a potential local bottom, historical retracement patterns suggest Bitcoin could still see further declines toward the $40,000 to $50,000 range.
Bitcoin recently fell to around $60,000, marking its lowest level since October 2024. The decline suggests the market has moved out of a euphoric post-halving phase and into what Kaiko Research described as a historically typical bear market period.
In a research note, Kaiko said Bitcoin’s 32% crash was the most significant correction since the 2024 halving. The firm stated this may mark the “halfway point” of the current bear market.
The report highlighted several emerging onchain bear market signals. These include a 30% drop in aggregate spot crypto trading volume across leading centralized exchanges from around $1 trillion to $700 billion.
Simultaneously, combined Bitcoin and Ether futures open interest declined by 14% over a week. Kaiko said this reduction from $29 billion to $25 billion reflects ongoing deleveraging in the market.
While Bitcoin has realigned with the historical four-year halving cycle, determining the bear market’s depth is complex. Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, noted that “many catalysts that fueled BTC’s rally to $126,000 are still in effect.”
“With oversold indicators emerging on multiple timeframes, the rebound conversation around BTC is more a question of when, not if,” Young added. He suggested Bitcoin may be entering a new cycle that will only become clear over the next year.
The key question for investors is whether the dip to $60,000 represents the market low. The level roughly aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, which has historically acted as long-term support.
Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, told Cointelegraph that more market volatility is expected in the absence of crypto-specific catalysts. “With that said, it is still very hard to say if it means we are going back to the conventional 4-year cycle,” he stated.
However, Kaiko pointed out that a 52% retracement from Bitcoin’s previous all-time high is “unusually shallow” compared to previous cycles. A 60% to 68% retracement would align more closely with historical drawdowns.
This implies a potential Bitcoin cycle bottom around $40,000 to $50,000. Still, some market participants argue that $60,000 already marked a local bottom.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe called the crash the local market bottom for Bitcoin’s price. He cited a record low in investor sentiment and a critical low in the relative strength index.
