In a volatile month driven by geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin narrowly avoided its worst monthly losing streak since 2019 by closing March with a minor gain. The first quarter of 2026, however, remained sharply negative. An analyst from Bitget Wallet provided a cautiously optimistic outlook for April, citing ongoing capital flows into crypto from regions of conflict despite the uncertain broader environment.
Bitcoin escaped a sixth consecutive month in the red by finishing March with a 1.8% increase to approximately $68,000. Data from CoinGlass shows this prevented matching the negative streak from August 2018 to January 2019.
The quarter was far less forgiving. After a 23% decline in Q4 2025, Bitcoin posted another 22.2% drop in Q1 2026, marking its worst first quarter since 2018. Historically, April has often yielded positive returns for Bitcoin.
Speaking on the April outlook, Bitget Wallet research analyst Lacie Zhang stated, “The April outlook for crypto remains cautiously optimistic, even as markets navigate a complex mix of geopolitical uncertainty.” She noted Bitcoin and stablecoins continue to serve as key channels for capital movement from unstable regions.
Zhang outlined potential second-quarter scenarios contingent on the Middle East conflict. Continued escalation pushing oil above $120 could see Bitcoin testing $55,000 and Ethereum dropping to $1,500. Conversely, a substantial de-escalation could propel Bitcoin above $90,000 and Ethereum over $2,700. Another potential catalyst is the CLARITY Act, though Zhang estimated only a “40%-60% chance it would pass this year.”
