BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes posits that a US conflict with Iran could force the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish monetary stance, historically benefiting cryptocurrency markets. He notes that recent US-Israel airstrikes have escalated tensions, but market reactions have so far been muted. Hayes advises a wait-and-see approach, suggesting the optimal time to buy digital assets would be after any confirmed Fed policy shift to finance the conflict.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, suggests the Federal Reserve may ease monetary policy to help finance a US conflict with Iran, potentially boosting crypto markets. “The longer Trump engages in the extremely costly activity of Iranian nation-building, the higher the likelihood that the Fed lowers the price and increases the quantity of money,” he stated in a blog post.
Hayes said every US president since 1985 has launched Middle East military action, with the Fed historically cutting rates to support such conflicts. He cited the Gulf War, the post-9/11 war on terror, and the Afghanistan surge as precedents for Fed easing.
“We do not know how long Trump will remain interested in spending billions, if not trillions, of dollars reshaping Iran’s politics,” Hayes noted, advising patience. He argued the time to buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies would be immediately after the Fed acts to support government goals.
Following recent airstrikes on Iran, crypto social media saw a spike in mentions of “World War 3,” according to Santiment. However, these mentions remain lower than during a previous conflict in June 2025.
The macro newsletter The Kobeissi Letter said the market reaction did not indicate a major crisis, with US stock futures opening only marginally lower. It added that oil prices had erased nearly half their initial gap higher and the S&P 500 was down less than 1%.
