Bitwise Asset Management has filed for SEC approval to launch six “PredictionShares” exchange-traded funds tied to U.S. election outcomes. The ETFs would invest primarily in CFTC-regulated political event contracts, potentially gaining value if a specified party wins but risking the loss of substantially all capital if it loses. This move follows a similar filing by Roundhill Investments, indicating growing competition in financializing political prediction markets.
Bitwise Asset Management has requested approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a suite of election-focused exchange-traded funds. According to the filing, the new “PredictionShares” ETFs are based on binary event contracts for the 2028 presidential and 2026 congressional elections.
Journalist Eleanor Terrett stated that Bitwise has joined Roundhill Investments in seeking political prediction ETFs. Each proposed fund would invest at least 80% of its assets in political event contracts on CFTC-regulated exchanges.
“The fund’s investment objective is to provide capital appreciation” should a specific party prevail. The prospectus cautions investors face the potential loss of “substantially all” invested capital if the predicted outcome fails to occur.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart noted Roundhill’s prior similar filings, signaling rising competition. If approved, these would be among the first ETFs to package such political event contracts, expanding the financialization of prediction markets.
