The U.S. Treasury confirmed borrowing $578 billion is projected for Q1 2026, maintaining an $850 billion cash balance. This occurs as BRICS nations, including China, India, and Brazil, collectively sold $144.6 billion in U.S. Treasuries over the past year. The 10-year Treasury yield recently rose to 4.207%, with the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio now at 123.48%, raising significant questions about fiscal sustainability and global demand for American debt.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury confirmed borrowing is set to reach $578 billion in Q1 2026, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion. This follows a period where the U.S. borrowed $308 billion in February 2026 alone.
Concurrently, major BRICS nations are reducing their holdings of American government debt. Over the 12 months to December 2025, China cut its U.S. Treasury holdings by $75.5 billion, India by $36.2 billion, and Brazil by $32.9 billion.
This sell-off raises real questions about who is selling U.S. Treasuries and where the US Treasury yield goes from here. The yield on the 10-year note closed at 4.207% on March 11, up from 4.135% the previous session.
Economists note international investors may be less inclined to buy new U.S. debt. UBS economist Paul Donovan stated, “The idea that international investors may be less inclined to buy U.S. Treasuries in the future (without dumping existing holdings) is getting attention in markets.”
ING Global Head of Markets Chris Turner described BRIC countries as “quietly leaving the Treasury market.” He added that comments from Chinese regulators advising limits on exposure come at a vulnerable time for the dollar.
The broader fiscal context shows the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio sitting above 120%. This ratio is now approximately 123.48%, a level not seen since the period right after World War II.
Total public debt has cleared $37 trillion, with interest payments consuming roughly one-fifth of federal revenue. The Congressional Budget Office documented government borrowing at around $308 billion in February 2026.
