A rare technical signal on the ALT/BTC chart has appeared for the first time in nearly six years, according to analyst Ash Crypto. This occurrence historically preceded significant altcoin outperformance. Three separate macroeconomic factors are also aligning, creating a potentially favorable backdrop for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
The ALT/BTC chart has printed four consecutive monthly MACD green bars for the first time since August 2020. Ash Crypto explained that the last such signal preceded a period where altcoins outperformed Bitcoin by 60% over three months.
The analyst pointed to three concurrent developments as potentially excellent news for altcoin holders. These include the MACD signal, a rising U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI index, and U.S. CPI inflation falling to a five-year low. Ash Crypto stated that “This is the most bullish macro backdrop for risk assets including alts in years.”
However, the analyst stopped short of declaring a full altcoin season. They noted that specific thresholds, including ISM above 55 and sustained liquidity expansion, would need to be met. A meaningful two-to-three-month recovery was described as possible if Bitcoin clears $76,000 and Ethereum moves toward $2,800 to $3,200.
Soon after, Ash Crypto pointed out that geopolitical events could disrupt the setup. Following a speech by U.S. President Donald Trump, Bitcoin retreated below $67,000 and Ethereum dipped under $2,100, with the total crypto market cap shedding over 3%.
Other data presents a contrasting picture for altcoins. Analysis showed over 40% of altcoins were trading at or near their all-time lows, a reading worse than during the 2022 bear market. Research also flagged a bearish outlook for major altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and BNB.
