Bitcoin analysts recently flagged a technical signal that could precede a major rally, but onchain indicators show sell-side pressure that may delay any sustained recovery. Coinvo Trading flagged the signal on the weekly chart, while onchain monitors recorded weakening trader demand, said.
The signal is a bullish cross of the Stochastic RSI for the U.S. 10-year and China 10-year yields plotted against the Bitcoin weekly chart. “Bitcoin’s most accurate bull run signal” has appeared only four other times, and the last occurrence in October 2020 preceded a roughly 600% rally to about $69,000, said.
Analyst Matthew Hyland links potential upside to U.S. dollar weakness and foresees a stronger BTC/USD move if the DXY index drops below 96. Gold has surged above $5,000 while Bitcoin stayed rangebound, and analysts at Swan noted gold often moves first, with Bitcoin later moving sideways before “violently” breaking out.
Onchain metrics tell a different near-term story. Spot cumulative volume delta fell to about -$194 million from roughly $54 million the prior week, indicating stronger selling, said Glassnode. “Overall, market conditions have shifted more defensive, while persistent sell-side pressure and rising hedging demand suggest the market remains fragile.”
Weekly flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs also reversed, moving from a $1.6 billion inflow to about a $1.7 billion outflow. These shifts point to cooling institutional demand and a potentially extended consolidation period.
