The Congressional Budget Office projects US economic growth will average just 1.7% annually over the next 30 years, the weakest sustained period in American history. This slowdown is driven by a historic rise in federal debt, mandatory spending, and interest costs, which are crowding out private investment and threatening long-term prosperity.
The Congressional Budget Office’s long-term budget outlook projects US economic growth will average just 1.7% annually over the next 30 years, marking the weakest sustained stretch in American history. Since World War II, the nation averaged 3.1% growth per year, but the federal debt projection, mandatory spending growth, and the interest spending rise are now pulling that number down.
Gross federal debt is on track to reach $182 trillion by 2056, which amounts to roughly $2 million per American family of four. This debt climbs from 123% of GDP in 2025 to 190% of GDP in 2056, the highest level in American history, and crowds out private investment.
House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington stated, “This CBO report confirms what we already know: America’s fiscal trajectory is unsustainable.” He warned that runaway mandatory spending and the crushing national debt represent the greatest danger to the nation’s prosperity.
Mandatory spending growth is pushing outlays from 75% of the federal budget today to 83% by 2056. Net interest outlays will climb from 3.3% of GDP in 2026 to 6.9% by 2056, consuming 37% of all federal revenues.
Arrington further emphasized, “The structural imbalance in our federal budget — driven primarily by autopilot spending in our largest entitlement programs — cannot be ignored any longer.” By 2030, deaths will outnumber births in the US, sealing the outlook for the slowest population growth the country has ever recorded through 2056.
