Bitcoin and Ethereum rose to three-week highs following geopolitical developments. Reduced tensions in the Strait of Hormuz improved risk appetite, pushing Bitcoin above $72,200 and Ethereum past $2,250. However, market data reveals a significant shift, with institutional investors moving over 80% of billions in capital off exchanges via OTC desks. This has dried up visible spot trading volume, creating a market structure heavily dependent on concentrated capital and vulnerable to sharp moves if sentiment reverses.
Macroeconomic conditions are currently shaping cryptocurrency market movements. A ceasefire announcement on April 7 reduced fears linked to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping lane. As oil prices fell and risk appetite improved, Bitcoin moved above $72,200 while Ethereum rose past $2,250.
Social dominance for these assets crossed 1%, with volume rising toward 68, showing growing focus on the “war ending” narrative. A similar sentiment spike occurred on March 30, but prices later weakened when talks failed, exposing how fragile optimism can be. The latest move shows stronger alignment between sentiment and price, suggesting macro relief is supporting demand.
Binance held more than 90% of the market in early 2022 when Bitcoin traded between $40,000 and $50,000, indicating strong retail participation. By press time, its dominance had dropped significantly, while data shows 82% of $32.7 billion in flows moved off-exchange, reinforcing institutional control. These larger players prefer OTC trading to avoid slippage and market volatility.
This liquidity shift has noticeably reduced visible exchange activity and spot trading volumes. Binance spot volume peaked at over $330 billion in early 2024 but recorded only around $69 billion by March, matching levels last seen during the 2023 bear phase. Other major venues like Gate.io, OKX, Coinbase, and Bybit showed similar declining trends.
The reduced retail participation limits liquidity depth, which can amplify future price movements. However, stronger institutional hands may also help stabilize prices. The current market structure appears firmer but depends more on concentrated capital than broad participation.
