Prediction markets on the blockchain platform Polymarket show limited trader conviction that a reported 45-day ceasefire in the Middle East will materialize soon. A market with nearly $100 million in volume indicates just a 4% chance of a truce by April 7th, rising only to 19% by mid-April. The ongoing conflict has contributed to volatile oil prices and market uncertainty, with a potential ceasefire seen as a possible relief for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
Reports indicate discussions for a potential 45-day ceasefire between the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators are underway. This news contributed to increased volatility in Bitcoin’s price, which briefly rose above $69,000.
Markets on the prediction platform Polymarket, however, remain largely unconvinced of an imminent agreement. A trending market with volume approaching $100 million allows speculation on a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
Odds of a ceasefire taking place by April 7th are currently just 4%. This represents an increase from about 1% seen 24 hours prior.
The probability rises to about 19% for a ceasefire by April 15th. For dates further in the future, trader sentiment remains cautious.
Only 46% of traders believe an agreement will occur by May 31st. The figure increases slightly to 56% for a deal by June 30th.
Surging oil prices have heightened fears of global inflation, as much trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This has caused considerable turmoil for risk-on assets, including major stock indices.
Even in optimistic scenarios, only about half the traders believe a temporary truce will be struck within two months. Should a ceasefire happen, risk-on assets might see relief and potential recovery.
