A cluster of accounts on the prediction market platform Polymarket made more than $600,000 in profits from trades related to the U.S./Iran ceasefire announced on Tuesday. On-chain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified the accounts, noting the same group had previously profited $1.2 million from well-timed bets on military operations. This activity highlights ongoing scrutiny of alleged insider trading on prediction markets.
A group of suspected insiders scored big on Polymarket on Tuesday, profiting more than $600,000 in combined trading contracts related to the U.S. and Iran ceasefire. Accounts belonging to a cluster identified by on-chain analytics firm Bubblemaps have previously profited on contracts related to military operations, raking in $1.2 million largely on the back of timely strike bets in late February.
“This cluster has been betting and winning on military markets since 2024 using multiple accounts,” a representative for Bubblemaps stated, adding that the accounts “predicted multiple independent surprise military operations.” The firm identified Polymarket accounts now named “djijaij83jdo4jdlwjflsg,” “Elonfax89678,” and “Skoobidoobnj” as belonging to the profitable cluster.
Profits largely came via markets that had the ceasefire taking place prior to April 7 and April 15. However, the accounts did not hit on all their wagers, collectively losing just shy of $50,000 on trades regarding a ceasefire prior to March 31. While the wager size is large, Bubblemaps says it doesn’t necessarily point to the accounts having privileged information.
“People can only wager the capital they have. We don’t know the income or net worth of individuals trading on Polymarket,” a representative for the firm told Decrypt. The firm also stated publicly it cannot say for certain the Polymarket accounts belong to insiders, noting “their win rate on ceasefires is not perfect.” Alleged insider trading on prediction markets has drawn tremendous scrutiny of late, particularly as it relates to potential insiders within the Trump administration.
California Governor Gavin Newsom alleged that “Trump’s Washington is riddled with ethical failures and insider profiteering,” signing an executive order banning political appointees from profiting on prediction markets with inside information. Prediction market platforms have been active in trying to deter the act, with Polymarket and Kalshi both making moves last month to improve their response to insider trading behaviors.
In January, well-timed bets on the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro triggered scrutiny when a trader profited more than $430,000 on Polymarket. Shortly thereafter, two Israelis were arrested and charged with using military secrets to trade and notch profits on the platform. Last month, Kalshi fined and suspended a video editor for YouTube personality MrBeast, who used inside information to profit on markets.
