A new analysis from CoinShares addresses growing concerns that quantum computers could threaten Bitcoin’s security. The report states that only 10,230 BTC, worth approximately $719 million, are held in wallet addresses with publicly visible cryptographic keys vulnerable to a potential attack. The vast majority of Bitcoin is not considered at immediate risk, according to the digital asset manager’s research.
Digital asset manager CoinShares has downplayed concerns that quantum computers could soon disrupt the Bitcoin market. The firm’s analysis argues only a fraction of coins are held in wallet addresses vulnerable to such an attack.
In a recent post, CoinShares Bitcoin research lead Christopher Bendiksen stated that just 10,230 Bitcoin sit in wallet addresses with publicly visible keys that are vulnerable. This represents a tiny portion of the 1.63 million Bitcoin in a potentially vulnerable state.
Over 7,000 Bitcoin are held in wallets with between 100 and 1,000 BTC, while roughly 3,230 Bitcoin are in wallets with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC. The remaining 1.62 million Bitcoin are held in wallets with under 100 BTC, which Bendiksen claimed would each take a millennium to unlock even with optimistic technological progress.
The theoretical risks stem from quantum algorithms like Shor’s, which could break Bitcoin’s signatures, and Grover’s, which could weaken its SHA-256 hashing. However, Bendiksen argued neither algorithm could alter Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap or bypass its proof-of-work consensus mechanism.
The Bitcoin at risk are unspent transaction output (UTXO) wallets, many dating back to the network’s early “Satoshi era.” The issue has divided the community over whether to implement a quantum-resistant upgrade or wait.
Some prominent voices, like Blockstream CEO Adam Back, believe quantum threats are overblown and will not disrupt the network for decades. Bendiksen shares this view, stating that Bitcoin is “nowhere near dangerous territory,” noting that attacks would require millions of fault-tolerant qubits far beyond current technology.
Others, such as Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, view quantum computing as a potential “existential threat.” Blockstream researcher Jonas Nick has suggested adopting post-quantum signatures could be a solution.
