Prediction market users drastically lowered the odds of a seasonal cryptocurrency rally after a negative price reaction to new inflation data. On the platform Myriad, the probability of a “crypto spring” fell from over 62% to under 50% following a hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index report. Major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB all declined on the day, with analysts linking the sell-off to concerns that persistent inflation could delay interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
The probability of a near-term cryptocurrency rally dropped sharply on prediction markets as asset prices fell following new inflation data. On Myriad, a prediction market, users now place the chance of a “crypto spring” at under 50%, a significant decline from over 62% earlier the same day.
This market resolves positively only if specific price targets for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB are met by May 31. The sentiment shift coincided with broad price declines across major digital assets tracked by CoinGecko, including Bitcoin falling to $71,610.
The price movement followed the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ publication of the Producer Price Index. Year-on-year PPI rose 3.4%, exceeding the 2.9% increase anticipated by economists.
GSR research analyst Carlos Guzman stated the price rise would boost inflation concerns. He noted that persistent elevated energy costs could force the central bank to keep interest rates higher, which he said would be “bad for crypto” as investors favor risk assets when rates drop.
Predictors on Myriad consider aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts unlikely before July. They currently assign just an 11% chance to a rate cut of more than 25 basis points occurring before that time.
