Bitcoin has formed a bearish “death cross” pattern on its three-day chart for the first time since June 2022, a technical signal that has previously preceded significant price declines. Despite this, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw substantial net inflows of $458 million, indicating renewed buying interest even amid heightened volatility from Middle East tensions.
Bitcoin is flashing a fresh “death cross” on its three-day chart. This marks the bearish signal’s first appearance since June 2022.
A death cross appears when the short-term 50-period moving average crosses below the longer-term 200-period moving average. It has at times presaged further near-term weakness for the asset’s price.
In total, Bitcoin has formed a death cross three times before 2026. The average returns over the following one, three, and 12 months were around –35%, –20%, and +30%, respectively.
Bitcoin averaged a drawdown of roughly 80% from its peak in those three prior cycles. As of March 2026, BTC had already dropped by about 50% since its record high of around $126,270 five months earlier.
Analyst Mister Crypto suggested BTC is now entering “the most brutal part of the bear market.” That view echoes commentators who see Bitcoin eventually carving a bottom in the $30,000–$45,000 range.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $458.20 million in net inflows on Monday. This signaled that dip-buying has returned after weeks of outflows.
The inflows came as Bitcoin volatility spiked following a sharp escalation in the Middle East. Iran said it was closing the Strait of Hormuz and warned it would attack ships after U.S. and Israeli strikes.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes argued this geopolitical turmoil may eventually boost Bitcoin prices. He wrote that the longer U.S. involvement continues, the higher the chance the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy.
