Bitcoin’s Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has dropped to 9.36, a level historically seen as a bullish signal indicating available buying power. However, on-chain analysis reveals this drop is caused by capital leaving the crypto ecosystem, not stablecoin accumulation, fundamentally weakening the indicator’s traditional interpretation.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that the SSR decline is driven by liquidity drain. The metric has fallen because both Bitcoin’s market cap and the stablecoin supply are contracting simultaneously.
The capitalization of USDT has fallen by $3.6 billion over 60 days, from a peak of $187.2 billion. Its 30-day change has remained negative for 34 consecutive days, now standing at -$3.08 billion.
“Technically SSR falls mathematically because BTC market cap has collapsed, but the simultaneous contraction of USDT strips this signal of any bullish potential,” Adler explained. The Estimated Leverage Ratio has remained flat near 0.219 for 90 days, indicating a lack of new speculative risk.
Bitcoin’s price recently fell below $63,000 before recovering to around $65,400. This represents a decline of more than 25% over the past 30 days.
HODL Waves data shows a defensive market structure, with coins held for 3-6 months now making up 26% of supply. These were purchases made near the November 2025 peak above $120,000.
The Realized Cap Net Position Change confirms capital exit, showing a -2.26% change over 30 days. Adler stated that for a genuine trend reversal, sustained positive USDT inflows and a rising ELR must occur concurrently.
