Senator Chris Murphy alleges individuals with White House access placed suspicious six-figure bets on a prediction market the day before U.S. strikes on Iran, sparking calls for a legislative ban. Blockchain analytics identified accounts that profited $1.2 million from well-timed wagers, raising concerns about insider profiteering from sensitive military actions.
Senator Chris Murphy has alleged that individuals with White House access placed large prediction market bets anticipating U.S. military action against Iran. He stated, “It looks like those six big accounts that were set up on Friday made a profit of a million dollars off of us going to war on Saturday.”
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six accounts that collectively made $1.2 million betting on the strikes, with no prior trading history. Most wallets were funded and placed “Yes” shares just hours before the military action, with one account purchasing over 560,000 shares and later receiving nearly $560,000.
Murphy has signaled he plans to introduce legislation banning what he calls “corrupt and destabilizing prediction markets.” He argues such markets could incentivize bad decisions, stating, “There’s going to be somebody in that room who’s going to be pushing us into war because they can cash in.”
Trading volume on Polymarket’s geopolitics markets surged to $425.4 million in the week ending March 1. An analysis of the platform’s data found more than 150 accounts placed correctly-timed bets totaling roughly $855,000. The incident follows recent charges in Israel where individuals were accused of using classified military intelligence to place similar bets.
